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Friday, 9 May 2025

How Do We Solve a Problem Like Danielle Smith?

Comparing Danielle Smith and René Lévesque 

I compare Danielle Smith to René Lévesque.  Exceptional communicators, with a history in broadcasting before entering politics, politically savvy, and with an in-depth knowledge of their constituency and constituents in both cases.  Both have shown the capacity to talk about sovereignty in subtle, sub-textual, svelte terms that make provincial secession sound benign.  However, neither has shown concern about what happens to Canada post-secession. Neither has ever acknowledged that we already live in the best country in the world.  Despite historical and regional grudges we live largely in harmony occupying the second largest and potentially richest territory in the world.  Neither sovereigntist has been prepared to discuss the stability, unity and existence of the country they are prepared to risk in favour of whatever imagined benefits provincial independence might offer. 

Canada Is a great country!

Canada is a great country.  But saying so is un-Canadian.  We use the expression "Great Canadian" to be sardonic.  But who are we mocking?  Ourselves in part.  More pointedly, our American neighbours to the south, and their obsessive, self-aggrandizing declarations of greatness, especially these days.  In certain times, our humility and deference serve us poorly.  We are living through one of those times.

People gather in support of Alberta becoming the 51st state during a rally at the Legislature in Edmonton, on May 3.  [Image from the Globe and Mail]

Doing Nothing and denial are dangerous

How do we address the potential dismemberment of Canada which Danielle Smith foregrounds and forebodes?  A typical Canadian response is denial, "it will never happen," and the liberal notion that "everything will turn out fine if we do nothing."  I believe we are facing the exception to these rules.

In his interview with Tara Henley on Lean OutDarrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs,  says,

I think that sometimes central Canadian people dismiss Western separatism as an issue of a few cranks out there in a couple of bars in rural Alberta or whatever. I don't think that that's what we're dealing with now. I think when you saw Danielle Smith's presentation yesterday, I mean, this is not nothing. Something is going on here. And by the way, I don't think the real question in Alberta is secession. I think it's more annexation [ . . .].

The Numbers aren't great

Polling on December 10, 2024, suggested that 66% of Albertans disagree with the province becoming a 51st US state.  More recent AngusReid polling suggests that 36% of Albertans support leaving confederation.  As someone who lived in Quebec during the election of René Lévesque's Parti Quebecois in 1976, the 1980 referendum and 1995 referendum--and witnessed the polling numbers changing dramatically in the space of two weeks in 1995--I do not find these Alberta numbers particularly reassuring.

How we kept Quebec in Canada in 1995

In the 1995 referendum vote, we (Canadian federalists) managed to keep Quebec in the Canadian confederation by just over half a percentage point (50.58%).  How did we do it?  To quote Jacques Parizeau's post-referendum complaint : "l'argent."   This chapter of Canadian history should be called "How Chuck Guite saved Canada and was punished for it."  During the 1995 referendum campaign, Guité, a federal civil servant, bent the rules and funnelled money to a Quebec advertising firm to promote Canadian unity.  His cavalier awarding of contracts in 1995 and beyond led to his eventually being found guilty of fraud and sentenced to three and a half years in prison.  Prosecutors complained of Guité's lack of remorse when he argued that he had been working to save the country in what amounted to "a war."

Time To do some nation building

Despite this cautionary tale of Chuck Guité, the results prove that an active campaign to keep Quebec in Canada mattered.  Tens of thousands (by some counts hundred of thousands) of Canadians paraded in Montreal in support of Quebec remaining in Canada.  Canadians nation-wide were encouraged to contact friends and relatives in Quebec rallying the vote against separation.  And, of course, there was a heartfelt and sometimes quite witty campaign inside Quebec on behalf of Canada.

This Time it's really serious

Alberta separation threatens to be much more acute and challenging.  This time, as the USA eyes the Alberta prize, what Danielle Smith calls "the Texas of the north,"  money (legal or otherwise) will flow in from the south in quantities even the Canadian government will find hard to match.  Quebec separatists talked a lot about waiting for the right economic conditions for independence.  Unlike Quebec, Alberta isn't looking forward to receiving equalization payments from the federal government.  For Alberta, the economic conditions are already in place.  Keith Spicer, Canada's Commissioner of Official Languages, once quipped that Quebec couldn't separate because there was nowhere for Quebec to go.  Again, not so for Alberta, as the USA will be all too eager to suggest annexation.

Advertising Matters

It's time to start selling Canada to Albertans.  We might want to start by selling the idea of Canada to ourselves with a bit more enthusiasm and vigour.  There isn't going to be a better time than now.

How Do You Solve a Problem LLIke Danielle Smith?








Tuesday, 6 May 2025

Danielle Smith promises Alberta separation referendum if signatures warrant

Just in case you didn't believe my previous post on Danielle Smith:  

Danielle Smith Is a Serious Threat to Canada’s Survival as a Country.



Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she would hold a referendum on provincial separation next year if citizens gather the required signatures on a petition.

Smith, in a livestream address, says she wants a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada but the voices of those unhappy with Confederation are not fringe extremists and must be listened to.

“The vast majority of these individuals are not fringe voices to be marginalized or vilified. They are loyal Albertans. They are, quite literally, our friends and neighbors who’ve just had enough of having their livelihoods and prosperity attacked by a hostile federal government,” Smith said.The speech comes a week after Smith’s United Conservative government introduced legislation that, if passed, will sharply reduce the bar petitioners need to meet to trigger a provincial referendum.


The bill, introduced the day after the federal election, would change citizen-initiated referendum rules to require a petition signed by 10 per cent of the eligible voters in a previous general election — down from 20 per cent of total registered voters.

Applicants would also get 120 days, rather than 90, to collect the required 177,000 signatures.

“To be clear from the outset, our government will not be putting a vote on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot,” Smith said on Monday.

“However, if there is a successful citizen-led referendum petition that is able to gather the requisite number of signatures requesting such a question to be put on a referendum, our government will respect the democratic process and include that question on the 2026 provincial referendum ballot, as well.”

As Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in person in Washington on Tuesday to discuss the tariff trade war and other issues, Smith said Liberal rule has turned Canada into an international laughing  stock.“We have the most abundant and accessible natural resources of any country on Earth, and yet we landlock them, sell what we do produce to a single customer to the south of us while enabling polluting dictatorships to eat our lunch,” she said.

Addendum

Image from the Globe and Mail:

People gather in support of Alberta becoming the 51st state during a rally at the Legislature in Edmonton, on May 3.





Saturday, 5 April 2025

Danielle Smith Is a Serious Threat to Canada’s Survival as a Country.

I first pointed out the threat which Danielle Smith posed to Canada in a post in October, 2022, when I referenced the chapter “Unlikely Canada” in Peter Zeihan’s The Accidental Super Power, published in 2015.  Zeihan adamantly predicted the break-up of Canada before 2030.  He foresaw Alberta becoming the 51st US state, following its independence from Canada initiated by the Wildrose Party lead by Danielle Smith.  In short, the threat she poses has been known and has grown for over 10 years and still no-one, with the possible exception of Michael Nabert on his Facebook page, seemed to be paying much attention . . . until this week.

Last Thursday, Smith was the featured guest at a fundraiser for PragerU in Florida.  PragerU is a right-wing propaganda machine which produces short videos in opposition to environmentalism, social programs, government bureaucracy and taxes.  PragerU videos are widely viewed online and are distributed to educational institutions in the USA.  The best way for you to understand PragerU is to visit the site yourself:  https://www.prageru.com/   Search Canada on the PragerU website if you would like to see samples of what Danielle Smith helped raise a million dollars in support of.

Since her appearance with right-wing podcaster Ben Shapiro, who advocated Canada becoming a 51st state, Smith has become a PragerU celebrity.  She was a guest for an hour-long interview with Marissa Streit, host and CEO of PragerU  (see below). 


Smith has justified her multiple trips to the USA (to Mara Largo, to the While House, and to Florida for PragerU) as diplomatic efforts against the Trump tariffs—to strengthen the USA-Canada relationship according to PragerU.  What we have been witnessing is the beginning of a courtship as Smith coyly points out what a good match Alberta and the USA would be—and Marissa Streit concurs.  As with any traditional courtship the message is in the subtext.  The obvious question of Canada’s becoming a 51st state was never asked, presumably by prior agreement.  Much of the interview dealt with the issue of transgenders, confirming that Smith’s attitudes were quite acceptable to PragerU Americans.  But the important sound bites came with Smith describing Alberta as the “Texas of the north,” with lots of oil, gas, cattle and grain.  Smith had the numbers ready and was more than happy to point out Alberta’s willingness to turn over its natural resources to the USA.  To make the geography clear to her American audience, Smith carefully pointed out that Alberta shares its border with Montana.  The unsaid:  no problem transporting all those Alberta resources and, of  course, Alberta has four times Montana’s population.  What more do you need to become a 51st state?  And a 51st state that can be counted on to vote Republican when the time comes.

When Smith was asked the “51st state” question during her “fireside chat” with Ben Shapiro, her answer was:

That would be like adding another California to your electoral system, and [you] would never have a Republican president in the White House again. So I would just caution you that it's probably best for us to just stay friends, and friends should never move in together.

Note that adding just Alberta wouldn’t be the same problem.  Smith hinted that Saskatchewan might also like to come along for the ride.

Recent polling suggests that 18% of Albertans favour Canada becoming a 51st state.  A Research Co poll carried out in December 2024 claims that 30% of Albertans believe the province would benefit from becoming part of the USA.   In his uninvited visit to Greenland, Vice-president J.D. Vance spelled out a vote for Greenland’s independence would lead to US hegemony over the island.  A referendum in favour of Alberta sovereignty, as Zeihan predicted in 2015, would eventually lead to statehood in the USA.

Preston Manning pulled back the covers on Western alienation, the Alberta sovereignty movement, and Smith’s subtext in a recent Globe and Mail editorial aimed at undermining a LIberal election.  Poor Pierre Poilieve had to once again distance himself from the support of his Conservative colleagues.  Manning got one thing right, the future of the nation is in play.  We do have to worry about Danielle Smith.

Saturday, 29 March 2025

I Used to Think that Pierre Poilieve Was a Really Smart Guy that I Didn't Like Very Much

I decided that Pierre Poilieve was a nasty piece of work when he was casting aspersions on the character and credibility of the former Governor General of Canada, David Johnson. When Johnson was tasked with investigating claims of foreign interference in Canadian elections, Poilieve attempted to discredit him with sleazy, spurious, guilt-by-association claims that he was susceptible to corruption because he and Justin Trudeau owned neighbouring cottages.

Talk about karma!

After his having made such a fuss about foreign interference in Canadian elections, CSIS (Canadian Security and Intelligence Service) now has evidence that Poilieve's Conservative leadership campaign received illegal funding from India. Poilieve could have been informed of what CSIS discovered and gotten in front of the accusations but, to everyone's mystification, Poilieve has refused to go through the process of getting security clearance which would allow him to access intelligence gathering.  Poilieve's justification for refusing to get security clearance is so profoundly dumb, it is difficult to fathom.  In a nutshell his argument is "ignorance is truth" (a slogan from the novel 1984?).  He is attempting to claim that he would not be able to be honest and transparent with the Canadian electorate if he had access to top-secret intelligence.  He can only be honest if he remains ignorant.  He can only tell the truth if he doesn't know what he is talking about.  (Read those sentences again. I wrote them, and I don't get it.)  Poilieve couldn't possibly do a better job of creating the impression that he has something to hide than refusing to be vetted for a security clearance.

Then There's the double standard!

Poilieve brushes off the fact that his leadership campaign received illegal foreign funding with the claim that he won the nomination “fair and square.”  When Han Dong's campaign for the Liberal Party nomination in his riding was accused of getting support from China, Dong was forced out of the party, his political and personal reputation ruined . . . and he has received death threats. The accusations against Dong remain unproven.  Poilieve, despite proof of foreign interference in his nomination campaign,  has waved off the accusations as being of no consequence. 

Then There's fentanyl

When Donald Drumph launched his trojan-horse claims of fentanyl crossing the border from Canada into the USA (yes, yes, we all know now that more fentanyl moves the other way), Poilieve tried to jump on that horse-drawn bandwagon by announcing that he would impose mandatory sentences of life in prison for anyone caught with 40 milligrams of fentanyl.  Do you know how small a milligram is?  Fentanyl is an incredibly powerful and easily produced synthetic drug.  (The Reuters web page explains what we should know and need to know about fentanyl.)  Two milligrams of fentanyl is a potentially lethal dosage  The drug is deadly, but the campaign promise came across as flawed, failed opportunism pandering to Donald Trump.



Then there's Carney

With the change in Liberal leadership, a new Prime Minister, and a new political opponent, it seemed that Poilieve's existence had lost its meaning.  Slowly he came to realize that changing the names from Trudeau to Carney, accompanied by satanic-looking videos of Carney awash in red just weren't going to cut it, he pivoted back to the guilt-by-innuendo that he had used to discredit David Johnson.  Poilieve announced what he hoped would seem a scandalous revelation that when Mark Carney was a private citizen representing Brookfield, the Canadian asset management company (Poilieve holds investments n the same company by the way), Carney visited the vice-president of the Chinese central bank, "two weeks later Brookfield got a quarter-billion-dollar loan."  There are only two possible interpretations of these scandalous revelations: 1) these two events happened one after the other and are completely unrelated or 2) Mark Carney has shown that he can negotiate a deal with China, Canada’s second largest trading partner, which is beneficial to Canada and Canadians.  Who is Poilieve campaigning for?  Then he uses the press conference (above) for some out-of-date China bashing. Is Poilieve seriously trying to escalate our trade war with China while we are in the midst of a trade war with the USA?

Listening to Poilieve trying to spin yet another conspiracy theory, it occurred to me that maybe this is the advantage of not having a security clearance.  Since he doesn’t know anything, he can just make stuff up without being accused of lying.

Then the worst happened:  Danielle Smith

If nothing else sinks Poilieve’s campaign, Danielle Smith’s attempt to support him by telling Breibart News that Poilieve is “in sync with the new US administration” should do it.

Signs of Desperation

I can’t think of anything more desperate than the Conservative campaign’s attempt to turn a sound bit of Trump describing Poilieve as acting “stupidly” as evidence that Poilieve is the man we want as Prime Minister.


Thursday, 20 March 2025

How Has Canada Ended Up in Trade Wars with China and the USA at the Same Time?

Here’s the chronology:

2015. The Justin Trudeau Liberals were elected with a plan to establish a free-trade agreement with China

2016.  Donald Trump was elected President of the USA and begins direct trade negotiations with Xi Jinping of China

2016-2017:  Plans for a Canada-China free-trade agreement are underway.

2018:  In January, Richard Donoghue, a lawyer working for Broadcom, becomes District Attorney for the Eastern District of New York

2018:  March 1, President Trump announces his intention to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian steel

2018:  In April, John Bolton becomes President Trump’s National Security Advisor

2018:  In October, Canada, USA and Mexico formally agree to the new NAFTA, the USMCA free-trade agreement which includes the “China clause” intended to block Canada from creating a free-trade agreement with China

2018:  December 1, John Bolton sets up a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping which he sarcastically describes as his “contribution to world peace.”  On the same day, under Bolton’s direction the FBI instructs Canadian Border Secrurity and the RCMP to  arrest Meng Wanzou the CFO and daughter of the founder of Huawei, the largest supplier of telecommunications equipment in the world, based on a warrant issued by Richard Donoghue.

2018-2019:  The Extradition Act is clear that the decision to extradite or release Meng is up to the Minister of Justice, Jody Wilson Raybould, after she has reviewed all the circumstances and determined if the request is fair or not.   Wilson Raybould issues a statement saying she takes her extradition responsiblities seriously but before she can do more she is demoted out of Justice for refusing to interfere in the prosecution of the engineering firm SNC Lavalin.  Wilson Raybould subsequently resigns.  The Lavalin scandal creates confusion because by law the Minister of Justice is not supposed to interfere in a case like SNC Lavalin but, by law, the Minister is supposed to decide the extradition case.  This difference never seemed to make its way to the Canadian public.

2018:  December 10, after the Canadian government had broken every law in the books including denial of  habeas corpus and ignoring the Canadian Extradition Act in the process of arresting Meng, the Chinese government followed suit and arrested Canadians Michael Korvik and Michael Spavor without just cause.  The Chinese government also began to restrict imports of Canadian produce and stalled plans to establish a Covid-vaccine laboratory in Canada--essentially initiating the Canada-China trade war which continues today.  Rather than releasing Meng, whom we now know was being held without justifiable cause, and arranging the release of the "two Michaels," the Canadian government in obedience and acquiescence to US policy continued to escalate tensions with China.

2020:  Weaponizing Human Rights, 24 hours before leaving office, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo declared that China was committing genocide against the Uyghur population of Xinjiang. At least three reports were published accusing China of genocide and were extensively quoted in the press.  The newly appointed US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken repeated Pompeo's claim of a genocide but made no official declaration.  In the UN's Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China published in August, 2022, the word "genocide" never appears.

2021:  January 21, the Canadian House of Commons passed a non-binding resolution proposed by Erin O'Toole that China was perpetrating a genocide against its Muslim population.

2021:  December 23,  the US Congress passes the Forced Labour Act which requires Border Security to reject all imports from China that might be the result of forced labour unless there is clear and convincing evidence to the contrary.  In keeping with the recently negotiated USMCA free trade agreement, Canada is required to do the same thereby further escalating a trade war with China.

2024:  October 1, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, again to align itself with US policy, and once again escalating a trade war with China.

2025:  January 20, Donald Trump is inaugurated as US President and announces a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, effectively reneging on the USMCA.  Nonetheless Canada continues to impose its 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles. 

2025:  China retaliates with 100% tariffs on Canadian canola, seafood and pork.  

Just a thought:  maybe we shouldn't have arrested Meng in the first place.


   

In the Midst of Canada's Existential Crisis, Alberta Premier, Danielle Smith, Escalates Hostilities with Canada's Federal Government.

 This is cut and paste from Edmonton Journal.


Smith targets ‘unconstitutional federal overreach' with new Alberta legislation

“These amendments we're introducing today would include denying federal workers access to our facilities and the information they contain."

Tuesday, 18 March 2025

Premier Danielle Smith defends Florida speaking trip as anti-tariff effort

 Cut and paste from Calgary Herald.  BTW, Prager U is not a university.  It is a propaganda tool of right -wing American conservatives.  Largely financed by the KOCH brothers who own the American refinery that processes most of Alberta's oil.  See Foreign Interference in Canadian Elections.

·4 min read

Alberta’s premier says her upcoming speaking appearance with conservative media personality Ben Shapiro is a continuation of the necessary “quiet diplomacy” she’s employed to gain the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump amid a heated trade war.

Danielle Smith has faced calls to cancel her advertised attendance at the March 27 fundraiser for Florida-based PragerU.

Shapiro is the outspoken co-founder of conservative media company The Daily Wire and former editor-in-chief of Breitbart News. He’s drawn criticism for past homophobic remarks and more recent posts supporting Canada becoming the 51st American state.

On her call-in radio show Saturday, Smith said it’s important she speak with those who have the president’s attention.

“You talk to the influencers. That’s the key insight that people should see,” Smith said.

“I can yell from the rooftops here all that I want, but it’s far more influential for someone close to the president, that he respects, making the same case for us.”

Tickets for the “East Coast Gala” are being sold for US$1,500.

Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, says Smith’s upcoming appearance with Shapiro differs from her past engagements with figures like Tucker Carlson or Jordan Peterson for a couple of reasons.

One distinction, Williams said, is that the event where Smith will share the stage with Shapiro is a fundraiser in support of PragerU.

Williams also highlighted Shapiro’s recent social media posts suggesting Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, noting that Smith’s participation at the conference places her alongside someone who appears to disrespect Canadian sovereignty at a politically sensitive time.

“When we take Canada, you will be expelled to Panama to work the canal,” Shapiro posted on X in response to a post made by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in January.

Sharing the stage with Shapiro is “something that’s not going to sit well with most Canadians,” Williams said. “Even in her base, I think there are a lot of patriotic Canadians who aren’t going to particularly like the idea of her appearing to take too lightly … disrespect for Canada’s sovereignty.”

As for Smith’s claim that Shapiro has influence with Donald Trump, Williams is skeptical.

“I don’t know that that particular argument works very well,” she said. “Even though Shapiro seems to be embracing Trump’s position on the 51st state rhetoric … he has spoken out against the tariffs on Canada. So I have no idea if Donald Trump is listening to anybody.”

Williams noted it’s become “very difficult” and “exceedingly unpredictable” to know who Trump listens to and communicates with.

“(Trump’s) advisors say something isn’t going to happen and it does, or they say something is going to happen and it (doesn’t),” Williams said.

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi last week urged Smith to cancel the appearance, saying it would be “despicable” for her to speak at the Florida event.

“These are not the kind of people that Albertans want her associating with,” Nenshi told reporters.

Smith reiterates support of ‘proportionate’ approach to tariffs

Smith said it’s important she and other opponents of tariffs address the likes of Shapiro — who has millions of followers on social media — and PragerU, who have spoken out against tariffs imposed by Trump.

“They think that tariffing Canada is dumb. They were very open about that and I want to be able to make sure that entire audience of influencers has all of my talking points so they can be making them every single place that they can so we can get to the finish line, which is tariff-free relationship on every product,” Smith said.

Asked why she has not offered a more aggressive response to U.S. tariffs, as Ontario Premier Doug Ford has, Smith reiterated her support of a measured, “proportionate” approach.

Ford threatened last week to slap an added 25 per cent charge on Ontario’s electricity exports to three northern U.S. states. Trump responded by declaring he’d double steel and aluminum duties on Canada, leading Ford to drop his proposed surcharge.

Trump went ahead Wednesday with an additional 25 per cent import tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., including from Canada.

Trump placed 25 per cent tariffs on some products coming from Canada and Mexico in early March — and 10 per cent on energy — while pausing others for 30 days.

Smith has repeatedly resisted calls — including from Ford — to consider Alberta’s energy exports as a retaliatory bargaining chip in the ongoing trade dispute.

“If you come to a gun fight with a knife, you really are going to be at the bad end of that,” she said.

“The Americans have more levers to cause harm in an energy war, particularly to Ontario and Quebec. They may not realize that I’m defending them but I absolutely am. You just don’t mess with energy.”

— With files from The Canadian Press

Why Does Everyone Care So Much about This Huawei Issue?

The Huawei case matters to Canadians I don’t know about “everyone,” but I can tell you why I, as a Canadian, “care so much about the Huawe...